Starting pitching was a subject of major debate for Team Canada in the first two World Baseball Classics, and it stands front and centre once again as Canada prepares for a third attempt at making it into the second round of the tournament for the first time.
The provisional roster for Canada's entry into the 2013 WBC, which begins the second week of March (for Group D, that includes Canada, Italy, Mexico and the United States) in Phoenix, Arizona, was announced at this weekend's Baseball Canada Awards banquet, and it's relatively bereft of big-time starting pitching.
Injury issues are preventing Minnesota's Scott Diamond (Guelph, Ont.) and Rich Harden (Victoria, B.C.) from playing. Jeff Francis (North Delta, B.C.) is trying to make the Colorado Rockies' rotation, so it's not advisable for him to miss a couple of weeks of Spring Training, and Ryan Dempster (Gibsons, B.C.) doesn't know if it's the best thing for his career to go pitch for Canada while trying to get acclimated to his new team, the Boston Red Sox.
Given that Dempster begged off playing for Canada in the previous two tournaments, citing relatively shaky reasons (in 2006, he was only two years removed from having had Tommy John surgery and he had just signed a big contract with the Cubs going into 2009, which sounds familiar), it's more likely than not that Canada's best available starting pitcher will stay in Fort Myers rather than put on the Maple Leaf and pitch for his country in the world tournament.
That leaves former Blue Jay Shawn Hill (Georgetown, Ont.), Pittsburgh's Chris Leroux (Mississauga, Ont.), and Twins' farmhand Andrew Albers (North Battleford, Sask.) as Canada's likely starting three. Hill has 44 big-league starts under his belt, which is 44 more than Leroux and Albers have combined.
The starting pitching story in 2006 was that Jeff Francis was the best Canada had to offer, and the tall lefty was saved for the winner-take-all game against Mexico. Francis, unfortunately, blew up real good in that start, giving up six runs while only managing to record four outs, and Team Canada couldn't dig itself out of the hole. They failed to advance on run differential, despite the loss to Mexico being their only one of the entire tournament.
In 2009, the story was that of Scott Richmond. Canada's best available starter was held back for a key third-game match-up against Venezuela that never happened thanks to Italy's incredible upset win that knocked Canada out early.
In 2013, the big story will likely be Dempster sitting out another World Baseball Classic, but Canada's starting pitching fortunes could have been altered drastically had two young guns been given permission to play by their big-league teams.
Jameson Taillon and James Paxton are two of the best pitching prospects in the game. Taillon, a 6-foot-6 righty who was drafted second overall by the Pirates in 2010, is Pittsburgh's number one prospect according to Baseball America, while Paxton, a 6-foot-4 lefty drafted in the first round by the Blue Jays a year earlier, is ranked fourth among the Mariners' youngsters. Paxton didn't sign with the Jays, and was taken the next year by Seattle, having slipped to the fourth round.
Both Paxton and Taillon have a chance to make their respective teams out of Spring Training this year, and for that reason it's likely that neither of them will be allowed to pitch for Team Canada at the World Baseball Classic (Paxton is out, but there's still a very slim chance Taillon gets permission).
But riddle me this -- is a three-inning stint against the powerhouse U.S.A., or against a Mexican team that will feature Adrian Gonzalez, among others, not far, far better for a young pitcher's development than a start of similar length against the Padres or the Orioles or whatever team Spring Training baseball offers up?
Offered up as Exhibit A, one Adam Loewen.
The young lefty went into 2006 as the 45th-ranked prospect on Baseball America's list, and despite an outside chance to crack the Orioles' rotation, was allowed to pitch for Team Canada at the inaugural WBC that spring. Loewen got a start against the U.S., and made an immediate name for himself, throwing 3 2/3 innings (remember, strict pitch counts -- he was allowed 60) of three-hit shutout at the Americans while his teammates built a 7-0 lead on the way to a massive upset win. Two months later, Loewen made his major-league debut.
Think that game against the U.S. didn't help a ton more than some random Grapefruit League start would have? The exact same holds true for both Paxton and Taillon, and with all due respect to Hill, Leroux and Albers, those two kids give Canada its best chance to do some damage.
Even without those kids, though, Canada's chances aren't bad at all. And just like it did in 2006, the whole first round really comes down to one game -- Mexico.
If things go according to plan, both Canada and Mexico will beat Italy and lose to the U.S., meaning one of them will wind up with two wins and one loss. The team that wins the head-to-head match-up will be the one to advance to the second round in Miami. One would think that Hill would get the start in that game, with Albers facing Italy and Leroux taking the ball against the big, bad Americans, and one hopes Hill has a better day than Francis did seven years ago.
It's too bad Francis' hold on a rotation spot in Colorado is too tenuous for him to take a shot at revenge this time around, but it's even worse that the Mariners will deny Paxton a huge opportunity to show them what he can do against competition that's a whole lot better than your average Spring Training exhibition, and that the Pirates are more than likely to do the same with Taillon.
Mike Wilner is a member of the broadcast crew on the Blue Jays Radio Network. Subscribe to his RSS feed here.
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