Weighing the Positives

Image: Mehau Kulyk/Photo Researchers, Inc.

It seems like every few months a new study points out the inefficacy of yet another wide-scale cancer screening. In 2009 the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force sug?gested that many women undergo mam?mograms later and less frequently than had been recommended before because there seems to be little, if any, extra benefit from annual tests. This same group recently issued an even more pointed statement about the prostate-specific antigen test for prostate cancer: it blights many lives but overall doesn?t save them.

More recently, researchers at the Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice announced that just because a mammogram (almost 40 million are taken every year in the U.S.) detects a cancer does not mean it saves a life. They found that of the estimated 138,000 breast cancers detected annually, the test did not help the vast majority of the 120,000 to 134,000 women afflicted. The cancers either were so slow-growing they did not pose a problem, or would have been treated successfully if later discovered clinically, or else were so aggressive that little could be done about them. Chest x-rays for lung cancer and Pap tests for cer?vical cancer have come under simi??lar criticism.

Individual cases dictate what tests and treatment are best, of course, but one factor underlying all these tests is a bit of numerical wisdom that, though well known to mathematicians, bears repeating: when one is looking for something relatively rare (not just cancer but even for, say, terrorists), a positive result is very often false. Either the ?detected? life-threatening cancer is not there, or it is of a sort that will not kill you.

Rather than looking at the numbers for the prevalence of the above cancers and at the sensitivity and specificity of each of the tests mentioned, consider for illustration cancer X, which, let us assume, afflicts 0.4 percent of the peo?ple in a given population (two out of 500)
at a certain time. Let us further assume that if you have this cancer, there is a 99.5 percent chance you will test positive. On the other hand, if you do not, we will assume a 1 percent chance you will test positive. We can plug these numbers into Bayes? theorem, an im?portant result from probability theory, and get some insight, but working directly through the arithmetic is both more illustrative and fun.

Con?sider that tests for this cancer are administered to one million people. Because the prevalence is two out of 500, approximately 4,000 (1,000,000 x 2/500) people will have it. By assump?tion, 99.5 percent of these 4,000 people will test positive. That is 3,980 (4,000 x 0.995) positive tests. But 996,000 (1,000,000 ? 4,000) of the people tested will be healthy. Yet by assumption, 1 percent of these 996,000 people will also test positive. That is, there will be about 9,960 (996,000 x 0.01) false positive tests. Thus, of the 13,940 positive tests (3,980 + 9,960), only 3,980/13,940, or 28.6 percent, will be true positives.

If the 9,960 healthy people are sub?jected to harmful treatments ranging from surgery to chemotherapy to radi?ation, the net benefit of the tests might very well be negative.

The numbers will vary with different cancers and tests, but this kind of trade-off will always arise in that nebulous region between psychology and mathe?matics. A life saved because of a test, though not that common, is a much more psychologically available outcome than the many substantial, yet relatively invisible, ill effects to which the test often leads.

Source: http://rss.sciam.com/click.phdo?i=24dc76b891102996fbb6b985f1180a2c

snow day neti pot iron chef bath and body works coupons jeff probst jeff probst king jong il dead

Mario and Sonic at London 2012 Olympic Games - Nintendo Channel data

Sorry, Readability was unable to parse this page for content.

Source: http://www.gonintendo.com/?mode=viewstory&id=169355

jeremy london butterball turkey fryer butterball turkey fryer yale harvard dan henderson oregon ducks oregon ducks

Jamie Dupree's Washington Insider: Gingrich Pushes On in Iowa

Still fighting an avalanche of negative ads in Iowa, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich appealed to Iowa voters to "change American politics" by rejecting radio and television attacks that have pushed Gingrich back in the polls here in the Hawkeye State.

"Business as usual would be for the negative ads to work," Gingrich told supporters at a restaurant in Waterloo, as he urged Iowa voters to grasp the latest message from a new Des Moines Register poll.

"41 percent of the voters indicated they might well change their vote between now and Tuesday night," said Gingrich.

There were a number of his backers out at the three different stops on Sunday, though it was hard to gauge whether Gingrich was having any success generating new support as the airwaves continued to sizzle with ads against his candidacy.

It was just a few weeks ago that Gingrich was leading in all of the polls in Iowa - now some surveys have him back in fourth place, behind the surging Rick Santorum.

At an event in Ames, Gingrich worked a standing room only crowd at a sports bar where the Vikings and Packers games were muted for a few minutes while Gingrich did a live interview with Fox News from a back room.

As for Gingrich's backers, some of them echoed his protests against tough ads that even Gingrich admits he should have responded to much earlier.

"He has remained very positive in his campaign," said Tom Kuyper, a Republican from Ames.

"The opponent has always been President Obama," Kuyper added, saying he's been a fan of Gingrich's since the days of the Contract With America.

But not everyone at the West Towne Pub was ready to vote for Gingrich.

"There would be nothing more fun than to watch Gingrich and Obama debate each other," said Jim Grove, another Iowa Republican.

"But I think the problem for me is some of what some people call baggage," said Grove, echoing concerns raised by critics of Gingrich's time in Congress and other matters.

"I'm worried there would be an issue about Independents supporting him," said Grove, who admitted he was at the event only to see Gingrich, but not to support him.

"I probably have two that are neck and neck," said Grove, telling me he would likely vote either for Michele Bachmann or Rick Perry.

Just like many Iowa Republicans, it was another voter who likes the idea of defeating President Obama, but just can't seem to figure out the best candidate to back in the Tuesday caucuses.

Source: http://www.newstalkradiowhio.com/weblogs/jamie-dupree/2012/jan/01/gingrich-pushes-iowa/

fsu football fsu football do a barrelroll bérénice marlohe bérénice marlohe google offers tim gunn

'A Big Relief': NASA Probe Enters Lunar Orbit

Enlarge Handout/AFP/Getty Images

This undated NASA handout image shows a view of the lunar surface taken from the Apollo 8 spacecraft looking southward from high altitude across the Southern Sea.

Handout/AFP/Getty Images

This undated NASA handout image shows a view of the lunar surface taken from the Apollo 8 spacecraft looking southward from high altitude across the Southern Sea.

A NASA spacecraft fired its engine and slipped into orbit around the moon Saturday in the first of two back-to-back arrivals over the New Year's weekend.

Ground controllers at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory erupted in cheers and applause after receiving a signal that the Grail-A probe was healthy and circling the moon. An engineer was seen on closed-circuit television blowing a noisemaker to herald the New Year's Eve arrival.

"This is great, a big relief," deputy project scientist Sami Asmar told a roomful of family and friends who gathered at the NASA center to watch the drama unfold.

The celebration was brief. Despite the successful maneuver, the work was not over. Its twin Grail-B still had to enter lunar orbit on New Year's Day.

The Grail probes ? short for Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory ? have been cruising independently toward their destination since launching in September aboard the same rocket on a mission to measure lunar gravity.

Hours before Earth revelers counted down the new year, Grail-A flew over the South Pole and slowed itself to get captured into orbit. Deep space antennas in the California desert and Madrid tracked every move and fed real-time updates to ground controllers.

Grail is the 110th mission to target the moon since the dawn of the Space Age, including the six Apollo moon landings that put 12 astronauts on the surface. Despite the attention the moon has received, scientists don't know everything about Earth's nearest neighbor.

Why the moon is ever so slightly lopsided with the far side more mountainous than the side that always faces Earth remains a mystery. A theory put forth earlier this year suggested that Earth once had two moons that collided early in the solar system's history, producing the hummocky region.

Grail is expected to help researchers better understand why the moon is asymmetrical and how it formed by mapping the uneven lunar gravity field that will indicate what's below the surface.

"It seems that the answer is not on the surface," said chief scientist Maria Zuber of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "We think that the answer is locked in the interior."

Previous lunar missions have attempted to study the moon's gravity ? which is about one-sixth Earth's pull ? with mixed results. Grail is the first mission devoted to this goal.

Once in orbit, the near-identical Grail-A and Grail-B spacecraft will spend the next two months refining their positions until they are just 34 miles (55 kilometers) above the surface and flying in formation. Data collection will begin in March.

The $496 million mission will be closely watched by schoolchildren. An effort by Sally Ride, the first American woman in space, will allow middle school students to use cameras aboard the probes to zoom in and pick out their favorite lunar spots to photograph.

Despite the latest focus on the moon, NASA won't be sending astronauts back anytime soon. The Obama administration last year nixed a lunar return in favor of landing humans on an asteroid and eventually Mars.

A jaunt to the moon is usually speedy. It took the Apollo astronauts three days to zip there aboard the powerful Saturn V rocket. Since NASA wanted to economize by launching on a small rocket, it took Grail a leisurely 3 1/2 months to make a roundabout trip.

NASA's last moonshot occurred in 2009 with the launch of a pair of spacecraft ? one that circled the moon and another that deliberately crashed into the surface and uncovered frozen water in one of the permanently shadowed lunar craters.

Source: http://www.npr.org/2011/12/31/144520685/moon-countdown-hours-until-nasa-probes-arrive?ft=1&f=1007

fiddler on the roof rally squirrel rally squirrel scumbag steve scumbag steve day of the dead rocksmith

Carlo Ancelotti takes reins at ambitious PSG

By JEROME PUGMIRE

AP Sports Writer

Associated Press Sports

updated 10:21 a.m. ET Dec. 31, 2011

PARIS (AP) -Paris Saint-Germain took the next step in its quest for European domination by announcing Carlo Ancelotti as its new coach on Friday.

Having secured Qatari backing, and spent ?82 million ($116 million) on players, PSG's next objective was to recruit a coach of world renown, who will help attract star players to the club.

Ancelotti, the former Chelsea, AC Milan and Juventus manager, replaced Antoine Kombouare, who left his job earlier Friday even though PSG leads the French standings at the halfway stage of the season.

"I think I can do a great job to help PSG become a big club in Europe," Ancelotti said. "We have a lot of ambition. We want to win the title and take part in the Champions League next season. We want to make this club bigger than it is today, do the best we can in France and in Europe. We want to stay at the top in France and improve certain things."

PSG has not played in the Champions League since 2004, but was a semifinalist in the competition in 1995 and won the now defunct European Cup Winners' Cup the following year.

Ancelotti's appointment on a 2 1/2 year contract had been expected since the club's sporting director Leonardo met with the 52-year-old Italian in Paris last month.

"I'm here to bring my knowledge, I will observe the behavior of the players and I will add some touches if necessary," Ancelotti said. "I want good organization, a strong attack, a good defense. We will look to play attacking football."

Ancelotti led Milan to the Champions League title in 2003 and 2007, and guided Chelsea to the Premier League and FA Cup double two seasons ago.

"I did an honorable job with Milan and Chelsea, and I hope to do the same here," Ancelotti said. "At one stage I never envisaged leaving Italy. When I left Italy, I wondered how things would go. I found out about a new country, the way people are. I liked it and I hope to do the same here."

Ancelotti's experience and success comes at a price and protracted negotiations lasted two days.

Ancelotti and Leonardo spent large parts of Wednesday and Thursday together as they dodged reporters waiting outside the Parc des Princes stadium and photographers camped outside a Parisian hotel.

Leonardo would not reveal Ancelotti's salary, but it is likely to be much higher than any other coach has ever been paid in the French league, with local media reports estimating his annual pay to be ?6 million ($8.5 million).

"Ancelotti's salary is within the market," Leonardo said. "It's a price that other big European clubs would be willing to pay. There's a European market, but realizing this is new in France. I know its difficult for some to understand.

"But what drives this club is passion, not money."

Ancelotti could be followed to the club by several big-name players in January, including former England captain David Beckham, who is weighing up a move from Los Angeles Galaxy.

The new coach would not be drawn on which players he might target with the hefty financial backing of owners Qatar Sports Investment, who took over in June. He did admit, however, that he admired AC Milan striker Alexandre Pato, who is struggling to get into Milan's team.

"I don't know if it's a good idea to name names right now as these are players who have a certain status in their clubs," he said. "I didn't come here to completely shake up the team. It's in first place."

Former France midfielder Claude Makelele will take on a coaching role under Ancelotti, who was sacked by Chelsea in May after failing to win a trophy in his second season.

"The English experience helped me a lot, it was a fantastic experience, but there is a great challenge here with PSG," Ancelotti said. "The club has everything to succeed and enormous ambition."

QSI has been extensively using the Italian connection to bring PSG back to the top.

Ancelotti, Leonardo and general director Jean-Claude Blanc all have a proven track record in Italy.

Leonardo played for AC Milan before becoming a scout, helping the Italian club sign Kaka and Pato when Ancelotti was coaching the Rossoneri. Leonardo was named technical director in 2008 and took over the coaching duties when Ancelotti departed for Chelsea the following year.

Blanc was the chief executive officer at Juventus from 2006 and became chairman of the board in 2009. The Frenchman oversaw the financing for the construction of the new Juventus Stadium and took care of revenue development.

"Working together is easier when you have a good relationship," Ancelotti said. "It's very stimulating to work alongside him and Jean-Claude Blanc. We want to do something very big on an international scale."

---

Associated Press writer Trung Latieule contributed to this report.

? 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

advertisement

More news

Sunderland beats City 1-0

Manchester City gave its title rivals renewed hope by slumping to a second Premier League defeat of the season.

Off-field woes

Football in 2011 was dominated by events off the field rather than on it.

Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/45824848/ns/sports-soccer/

menorah snooki chanukah chanukah david archuleta david archuleta hobbit trailer

Brock Lesnar retires from MMA after loss to Alistair Overeem at UFC 141

LAS VEGAS - Brock Lesnar never really adjusted to getting hit for real. Tonight, facing a 263-pound monster in Alistair Overeem, Lesnar bowed out early and then walked away from the sport.

The same old bugaboo - his inability to absorb punches - reared its ugly head at UFC 141. Overeem targeted Lesnar's body with knees and kicks, got the big man to drop and cover up. It was all over in less than two and a half minutes in the main event at the MGM Grand Garden Arena.

So is Lesnar's run in MMA. The former star of pro wrestling announced that he was finished fighting in the Octagon.

"I want to thank everyone, the Fertittas and Dana White," Lesnar told UFC analyst Joe Rogan. "I promised my wife and kids that if I won this fight, the fight against Junior [dos Santos] would be my last. If I lost tonight, this would be my last."

Overeem, a veteran of 47 MMA fights coming in, broke Lesnar's spirit early by thwarting a takedown attempt and battering his body repeatedly. The win gets him the next heavyweight title shot against dos Santos sometime in 2012.

"My hats off to Alistair Overeem. I want to take my hat off to all my training partners, my entire family," said Lesnar. "I've really had a difficult time with my disease. I'm officially retired tonight. This was the last time you'll see me in the Octagon."

Lesnar (5-3, 4-3 UFC) missed the last 15 months fighting a battle against diverticulitis. The intestinal ailment and subsequent surgery had him losing 40 pounds at one point.

Lesnar was first diagnosed in Oct. of 2009. He went without surgery and returned a year later. He lost his UFC heavyweight title belt to Cain Velasquez at UFC 121. More alarming than the one-sided loss was the way Lesnar turned and ran away from punches after he was nailed a few times by Velasquez.

Velasquez is a big puncher, but Overeem is in a different class. An experience kickboxer, the 263-pound Overeem hits like a Mack truck. A few knees early tonight really rocked Lesnar and put him on his heels. From there, he was tentative in going for the takedown.

Lesnar, a wrestler by trade, only attempted one single-leg takedown 50 seconds into the fight. After that, he chose to stand and box with Overeem. It was a path to disaster.

With 2:42 left in the first, Overeem (36-11-1, 1-0 UFC) drilled Lesnar on his right side with a nasty body kick. Lesnar had a delayed reaction, grabbed at his ribs and went down to a knee. Overeem charged forward and threw 11 unanswered punches as Lesnar covered up. The final right crushed Lesnar to the body. That's when the ref stepped in.

This was the UFC debut for Overeem, who's fought all over the world. The giant Dutchman spent most of his career fighting in Japan as a 205-pounder. In 2007, he decided to add bulk to his 6-foot-5 frame. The change has been shocking. He's stormed to eight straight wins in the big boy division, with seven of them coming via first round finishes.

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/mma/blog/cagewriter/post/Brock-Lesnar-retires-from-MMA-after-loss-to-Alis?urn=mma-wp11363

john elway eric decker eric decker dallas cowboys cheerleaders leftover turkey recipes leftover turkey recipes hugo

Company controlled by Sony Europe faces liquidation after shutting stores

The Irish Times - Saturday, December 31, 2011

BARRY O'HALLORAN

A COMPANY controlled by Sony Europe is facing liquidation after shutting three of the electronics giant?s Irish stores without warning this week.

Hi Fi Corner will ask shareholders and creditors to wind up the company and appoint a liquidator to it next month after conceding that it cannot continue trading in the current climate.

The company has shut its three Sony stores. The shops were in Dundrum Town Centre and the Blanchardstown Centre in Dublin, and Scotch Hall retail mall in Drogheda, Co Louth.

Shoppers who arrived at the Dundrum outlet yesterday were greeted with a notice on the door stating that it had been shut due to circumstances outside the company?s control.

Many of the shoppers had arrived to exchange goods at the store. Sony Europe yesterday pledged to honour all warranties and customer orders.

In a statement issued yesterday, Hi Fi Corner confirmed that it closed down its three stores.

?Meetings of the shareholders and creditors have been called to take place on January 16th with a view to winding up the company and appointing a liquidator,? the statement said.

?The trading environment in Ireland has been extremely challenging and, although much has been done to reduce the cost base of the company, progress has been hampered by a difficult retail climate along with expensive and inflexible lease agreements.?

The company did not comment on its debts or other liabilities, but said ?further details would be disclosed? once the liquidator had been appointed.

Sony Europe took over 76 per cent of Hi Fi Corner in 2009 and pledged to provide enough cash to allow it to continue to meet its obligations.

Its figures show that it lost ?2.25 million. In 2010, its auditors pointed out that there was a ?material uncertainty? over its ability to continue as a going concern.

The accounts make it clear that it needed the support of Sony Europe to stay in business.

Businessman Brian Sheehan held the remaining 24 per cent of the company.

Hi Fi Corner subsequently shut two stores in Dublin, in Ballsbridge and Liffey Valley Shopping Centre, in 2010.

In the 12 months to March 31st, 2010, the last period for which accounts are available, it lost just over ?1.2 million before tax.

Those accounts, which directors Peter Dawson and Alastair Fanning signed off on in September 2010, warned that the business was continuing to suffer from the impact of the downturn.

?The difficult economic environment in Ireland is presenting challenges for the company as consumers are reluctant to purchase discretionary items,? the accounts stated.

It added that falling disposable incomes and faltering consumer confidence continued to affect trade.

The accounts show that it owed creditors almost ?4.3 million, while there was a deficit between assets and liabilities of close to ?3.3 million on March 31st, 2010.

The statement yesterday said customers with any queries should contact 01-4131785.

Source: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/1231/1224309677555.html

port of oakland grand theft auto 5 grand theft auto 5 kris jenner kris jenner livestand power ball